A model reliability diagram (calibration plot) shows that predicted probabilities near 0.8 correspond to observed event rates of only 0.6. What does this indicate about the model?
Select an answer to reveal the explanation.
Short Explanation
Here's the deal — when your predicted probabilities (0.8) are higher than observed event rates (0.6), the model is overconfident. It's assigning too much probability to events that happen less often.
Full Explanation
The correct interpretation is that the model is overconfident because predicted probabilities (0.8) are systematically higher than observed rates (0.6); it assigns too high a probability to events that occur less frequently. The well-calibrated-at-high-scores option is wrong because calibration requires predicted = observed. The underconfident option is wrong because underconfidence means observed rate > predicted probability. The poor-discrimination/low-AUC option is wrong because discrimination and calibration are distinct properties.